Why Could YouTube CTV CPMs Rise in 2026? 💸📺

By Max Legrand · GreyFox Ads · A perspective from France

What happens when Google's automated advertising machine meets the living-room TV screen? Our hypothesis: if more advertisers compete for a relatively fixed amount of YouTube connected TV inventory, CTV CPMs could face upward pressure in 2026. But the outcome is far from guaranteed.

1. What is Google Performance Max (PMax)?

We recently opened a Google Ads account to run display ads targeting agency media traders. We were struck by just how prominently Google presented its Performance Max offering (we even asked an AI how to navigate back to the more familiar campaign setup). Here's the story behind that experiment.

PMax is Google's automated, goal-based campaign type. Advertisers provide objectives, conversion signals and creative assets; Google then helps distribute and optimize ads across eligible Google inventory. That can make activation accessible to smaller advertisers without a specialist media-buying team. The trade-off? Less granular visibility and control over exactly where every euro goes.

Google's creative automation can also assist with generating or adapting assets, potentially reducing the effort needed to enter video-led environments (capabilities and inventory eligibility depend on campaign settings and product availability).

2. Why could PMax bring more advertisers to YouTube CTV?

Consider the traditional barrier to television advertising: a business needs video creative, a media plan and the expertise to buy and measure the campaign. Automated campaign creation and asset generation can lower some of those barriers. Suddenly, a small retailer that once bought only search or display might also reach viewers watching YouTube on a connected TV.

Our working hypothesis is that greater use of YouTube CTV within automated Google campaigns could introduce additional advertisers into auctions previously dominated by more specialized video and TV buyers. That is a hypothesis about buying behavior, not proof that every PMax campaign runs on CTV or that Google has allocated a fixed share of PMax spend there.

3. Could extra demand push YouTube CTV CPMs higher?

Basic auction economics suggests a possible answer: when more buyers compete for the same available impressions, clearing prices may rise. Imagine a constant volume of eligible YouTube CTV ad opportunities, but a growing pool of brands willing to bid for them. Existing advertisers could find themselves paying higher cost per thousand impressions (CPM).

Importantly, CPM is not a universal price tag for YouTube CTV. Auction dynamics, audience, geography, format, seasonality and campaign objectives all matter. We are discussing a possible direction of travel, not announcing that 2026 prices have already increased.

4. What role do AI-generated creatives and QR codes play?

If you've watched YouTube on television, you may have noticed ads with voice-overs, simple generated visuals or a QR code that invites viewers to continue on their phones. These are interesting because they connect a big-screen exposure with a smaller-screen action: visiting a site, exploring a product or installing an app.

For Google, that potentially strengthens the proposition of TV-to-shopping advertising. For smaller advertisers, automated creative tools can make video production less intimidating (although creative quality, brand suitability and measurable outcomes still require human judgment).

5. What could prevent a CPM increase?

Several factors could weaken the hypothesis. YouTube could make more monetizable inventory available, advertisers could shift budgets rather than add new money, and automated systems could move spend toward other placements when CTV becomes expensive. More advertisers in a campaign type does not necessarily mean proportionally more bids on the same television impressions.

There is also a measurement question: a QR-code scan or post-view conversion does not by itself demonstrate that the CTV impression caused the sale. Advertisers should compare incremental outcomes, not only attributed conversions (especially when automation controls both delivery and reporting).

6. What should programmatic media traders watch in 2026?

Rather than assuming CPM inflation, media traders can track effective CPM, reach, frequency, completion, conversion quality and incremental lift over time. Separate YouTube CTV performance from mobile and desktop YouTube whenever reporting permits. Look at changes in inventory mix and auction pressure before concluding that the platform has simply become more expensive.

It is also worth comparing CTV with the wider video market. We've previously discussed CTV-washing and inventory classification, as well as AI's impact on video advertising. The same discipline applies here: understand what you are actually buying.

7. Where does GreyFox Ads fit alongside YouTube?

Here in France, GreyFox Ads does not sell YouTube inventory through its curated deals. Our role is complementary: helping media traders reach quality Open Web display and video inventory with a transparent supply path and practical targeting options.

Our Master Deal approach combines direct publisher SSP seats and useful intermediaries, exclusions for ad-cluttered sites, brand-safety controls, strong screen-share criteria, and privacy-appropriate strategies across cookie-based, cookieless and no-consent environments. We also make the supply-chain costs easier to understand.

If your YouTube CPMs rise, the answer is not automatically to abandon YouTube. It is to ask whether the rest of your video and display plan is delivering incremental reach and genuine attention—and whether you can verify the value of each environment. For more context, see our analysis of attention on the Open Web and the limits of viewability optimization.

Want a quality programmatic advertising partner?

Looking for a transparent complement to your YouTube or CTV plan? Contact GreyFox Ads to discuss curated Open Web display and video campaigns.

Original LinkedIn post: Why YouTube CTV prices could rise in 2026.